Week 13: Dover
Welcome back everyone! This week we head to another one of my favorite tracks on the NASCAR circuit, Dover Motor Speedway. "The Monster Mile" has a concrete surface and has always made for some awesome racing. The track is gritty so it is tough on tires, and the drivers will be man handling these cars as they slip and slide all day long. All of this to fight for one of the coolest trophies in sports, the mini monster.
Last week in Darlington, we didn't pull out a win but all of our picks ran up front for most of the day, and the lineup that we put together for Daily Fantasy faired pretty well. Lets go out and get a W this week!
Who I'm Betting
I have a confession to make. Last week I sandbagged on you guys a little bit, but to be fair, I am very superstitious when it comes to racing. As most of you know, I spend most Sunday's rooting for whoever I have placed money on, however, first and foremost, I am a huge Martin Truex Jr. fan and I cheer for Kyle Larson on the side. Last week I knew that Truex Jr. would run well, but did not want to jinx him at a track where he has had many highs, accompanied by many lows. Well I guess you could say it worked. He won but I did not bet on him. I won't be making the same mistake this week, just in case superstition is bullshit.
Martin Truex Jr. +350 is heavily favored this week for good reason. His stats at this racetrack are absolutely ridiculous, especially since he has taken over the seat of the #19. In the last four races at Dover, Truex Jr. has finished 1st, 2nd, 2nd, and 2nd. Take a minute to think about how crazy that actually is. In his career at Dover (30 starts), Martin has an average finish of 11 and he has 18 top tens, and 9 top fives. In all of that, he has also won 3 races here. You can bet on Truex to win, but if whoever you are betting with gives you odds on a top five finish, bet the house.
My number two pick of the week is once again Denny Hamlin +600. I am kind of running out of things to say about Denny so I will say the obvious, he has to win sometime. Not to mention, Joe Gibbs Racing has always run very well on the concrete surfaces. Going with the 19, 11, 18, or even the 20 car today would be a smart bet all around.
As far as personal stats at Dover go, Denny Hamlin isn't too far off pace with Truex Jr. He has only a 16th place finishing average, however he does have a win, 13 top tens, and 6 top fives in the same amount of starts (30). Denny has also been very good on gritty concrete surfaces that really make you wheel the car. I like his chances today.
Instead of boring everyone with yet another Larson pick (he's +450 today and will probably make me wish that I bet him), I figured that I would throw Chase Elliott +800 a bone this week. Wait a minute though, I am not that type that just throws out picks for pity, Chase actually has a pretty good stat line at Dover as well. In only 10 starts at the monster mile, Elliott has finished in the top 5 seven times. That is very impressive. One of those top fives left him standing in victory lane at the end of the day. Also, don't forget how well Hendrick Motorsports' cars have been running this year. Chase is destined to run well tomorrow in Dover.
Before I move on to the next pick, there a couple of other drivers that may bode well on the concrete Sunday. I already mentioned Kyle Larson +450 above. Seriously, bet on him. Kyle Busch +800 has decent odds and will be strong tomorrow for sure. And the last one that I have to throw out there is Kevin Harvick +750. He has a great stat line at this track, and is tied with Truex among active drivers with 3 Dover victories.
Sprinkle of the Week
Alex Bowman +1800 is my sprinkle of the week. Mostly because his odds are ridiculous. I would handicap Bowman at no more than +800 with how strong that team has been this year. Bowman has also run strong at Dover since moving over to Hendrick's race team. In just 6 starts in the famed #88 car, Bowman finished in the top five 3 times. I have no reason not to bet him at such high odds today, I will be crossing my fingers for a big pay day.
I also want to shout out Kurt Busch +8000 here. Talking about crazy odds, Kurt is a past winner at this track, and his team owner has also put a car in victory lane with Larson. I am definitely throwing a small chunk on the #1 car today, just in case.
Who I'm Betting
Martin Truex Jr. +350
Denny Hamlin +600
Chase Elliott +800
Sprinkle of the Week
Alex Bowman +1800
Kurt Busch +8000
Pray for Pay Parlay
Josh Berry +1600 (Xfinity)
Martin Truex Jr. +350 (Cup)
Daily Fantasy Lineup (FanDuel)
M. Truex Jr. $14,000
C. Elliott $12,500
C. Bell $9,000
A. Almirola $7,500
D. Suarez $6,700
As always thank you all for reading! I hope you have a great week! God Bless.