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NASCAR Week 5 Picks: Phoenix


Hello race fans, and welcome to another week of my losing NASCAR picks. I mean what the H-E double hockey sticks is going on around here? I feel like I have tried to think outside of the box because this year has been crazy, but I have been just missing by a little bit every time.


Kyle Larson got a HUGE win this past weekend in Las Vegas. It surprised me a little bit, but if I'm being honest I knew that it was going to happen sooner or later. The kid has more talent in his right foot than most of these guys do in their whole body. Last week was such a monumental win for that kid and I expect there to be many more this season. He has finished in the top ten all but one week. He did that with a brand new team, a brand new crew chief, and no sponsorship backing (Even though we all know Mr. H can afford it).


For more on Kyle Larson, keep an eye out on Saloon Door Sports for a blog dedicated to his come back next week. It will be a good one and some of you may hate me after reading it, so that will be fun.


First of all, before you crucify me, I am betting with Vanilla flavored chalk this week. In betting terms, that means I am picking mostly favorites, but c'mon people!!! We have to see one of these heavy favorites win eventually. If you have all of the money in the world, and you really want to go out on a limb this week, YOU SHOULD STILL PICK THE FAVORITES. Just kidding, I wouldn't blame you if you are fading me, or picking opposite of me because of how bad I suck at this point. If you have been, well played.


On to this week's picks...


Who Am I Betting?


Chase Elliott +550 is my first pussified, yellow, cowardly pick of the week. If you were paying attention the last time we came to this race track, you would have noticed that Chase Elliott absolutely dominated this race, and went on to win the championship. If you have been paying any attention this season, the Hendrick cars are bad fast. The four young drivers for Mr. H, have wrapped up 8 top tens and 4 top fives this year. Not to mention, they have won two of the four races.


Chase has actually struggled a bit over the last few weeks. The 9 car has finished outside of the top 10 in each of the last three races (although he was dominating one of them) and has been a non-factor as far as racing for wins. However, I expect Chase to bounce back in a big way this week in Phoenix, he will show up with something to prove.


*Just a little bonus note, excluding William Byron, because he doesn't really run that well out West, I could easily see any of the other three Hendrick cars winning this week. Kyle Larson +850 is on a big run and is really fast, and Alex Bowman +3000 loves this race track. I wouldn't blame you for putting money on all three.


Brad Keselowski +700 is going to fall into my second spot this week. Brad K likes this track, as he finished second to Elliott in the fall. Keselowski has two top 5s and four top 10s in the last five races at Phoenix and Penske always seems to bring a good package. Brad has also been quick so far this year, and looked really good in the opening stages of last week's race. Before it became the Kyle Larson show in Vegas, Brad K led 27 laps and won a stage.


If you want to fade me, I don't blame you. That is why I am going to give you a different pick that I think has a good shot in this slot for the Phoenix race. Kevin Harvick +600 has had a lot of dominant days at this race track over the years. He has had a rough season and showed little to zero speed. I think he will bounce back and run up front this week. So if you want to fade me, and you think that I'm a moron, pick Kevin Harvick. Would that actually be fading me since I just told you to pick him? Shit I don't know. You be the one to decide.


Continuing on with picking the favorites for this week, Denny Hamlin +650 seems like a good way to bet. Denny Is always a threat, especially at this intermediate tracks that have character, i.e.; Phoenix, Richmond, New Hampshire, Dover, etc. Denny has somewhat quietly racked up 3 top fives and 3 top tens in 2021. He also ranks first among all drivers with an average finish of 5.8.


Some folks are saying that Hamlin is distracted this year by the 23/11 team, but I don't think its true. Denny will be just fine, and in his defense, none of the Toyotas have been anything spectacular. CBell has been the only winner coming out of the TRD camp, and that was essentially on tire strategy.


Look for Denny to get another top five this week, and if he does that, he will have as good of chance as anyone to be in victory lane.


I have a couple of "Sprinkle" picks for this week. One, I already mentioned above with Alex Bowman +3000. I don't know why, but I will never forget Phoenix in November of 2016. Dale Earnhardt Jr. was sitting out because of his concussions, and Bowman was the lucky one to get to fill the 88's seat. To me, Bowman was a nobody before that day, he was just the guy that got lapped every week in the Tommy Baldwin #7 car. To make a long story short, Alex Bowman went out at Phoenix and led almost 200 laps that day. I thought for sure that he was going to win that race, and that he was going to shock the world. Moral of the story, Alex likes this track, and at +3000, why in the Hell not????


My other sprinkle pick is Ryan Blaney +1600, for no other reason than I really like the dude, and he has put together some decent runs at this track. Look for Blaney to show himself today. He needs a good run, and this would be a good place to start.


Bets of the Week

-Chase Elliott +550

-Brad Keselowski +700

-Denny Hamlin +650


Sprinkles of the Week

-Ryan Blaney +1600

-Alex Bowman +3000


Daily Fantasy Lineup (FanDuel)

-D. Hamlin $13,000

-C. Elliott $13,500

-R. Blaney $10,500

-A. Bowman $9,000

-R. Preece $4,000


Thank you for reading, and as always, please bet responsibly. If you have any NASCAR fan friends, I would greatly appreciate you letting them know about my blog. I try to do as many stories that I can, as well as a weekly predictions/picks blog.


If NASCAR isn't your thing, we will be posting more and more on other sports like baseball, and football, as their respective seasons get closer and closer.

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