Welcome back NASCAR fans and/or degenerate gamblers! This week we head to Vegas and something has to give for the bettors. Vegas has been making out like bandits, because I HIGHLY doubt that many people have picked a correct winner this season so far. This is the week where that changes!
This blog will be much shorter than the past couple for two reasons. One, I am tired of writing like I know what I'm talking about, just to look like a complete dumbass when the checkered flag falls. Two, I am picking a pretty "vanilla" lineup this week hoping that something normal happens.
Who Am I Betting?
My number one pick of the week goes to Martin Truex Jr. +600. Over the last three 'Spring' races at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, three guys have led almost 80% of the total laps. The big three of intermediate (1.5 mile) tracks have been extremely dominant and are your absolute safest picks this Sunday. Truex has wrapped up a lot of Victory Lane visits over the last 4-5 years at these tracks, and who better than your favorite driver to pull you out of a betting slump? Nothing like a good homer pick, said no one ever.
Before I move on, Kevin Harvick +600 is also a very good pick here. He hasn't shown much speed so far this year, but he is a part of the big three that I mentioned above. He WILL be a factor at some point in this race.
In the number 2 slot this week is Joey Logano +800. Logano is the third leg (nice) of the "big three" and has been pretty damn good this year. Last week he was a little disappointing, but I think he had speed. You see in my opinion, if last week's race at Homestead started 2 hours later, you would have seen guys like Truex Jr., Logano, Harvick, and Kyle Busch finding their way to the front. The crews had the cars set up for the cooler temperatures, and by the time it cooled down, it was too little, too late.
I digress, they will all be ready this week. There will be no sunset over this weekend's race, and I think that will bode well for the big three, and other veteran driver/crew chief combinations.
Also consider Kyle Busch +1300 in this slot. As I stated last week, anytime I find his odds at +1000 or higher I bet him. Not to mention, this is Kyle's home track. My guess is he wins the truck race tonight, and does his homework for Sunday.
With the weird winners that we have been getting so far this year, it would take a hell of a star alignment for it to happen for a fourth week in a row, that's why for my "Sprinkle of the Week" I am going with Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +6600. No fucking way is this going to happen! No way in hell is the dude that, other than wrecking every car in his path, is best known for being used by Danica Patrick as her flavor of the week a few years ago, going to shock the NASCAR world for the fourth week straight.
Hold on, could it happen? Could we throw a sprinkle on ol' Wrecky Stenhouse this week and win a bet that pays +6600? I hope so, but I don't see it. However, poor ol' Ricky "The Door Mat" Stenhouse, has been running really well at this track. He was 3rd in the fall, and has pulled off a couple of top tens over the last 4 races. Look for him to be one of the strongest of the dark horses this week, and put himself in a position to keep this bizzarro world of a season going.
Bets of the Week
-Martin Truex Jr. +600
-Joey Logano +800
-Kyle Busch +1300
Sprinkle of the Week
-Ricky Stenhouse Jr. +6600
Daily Fantasy Lineup (FanDuel)
-Kevin Harvick $14,000
-Martin Truex Jr. $13,500
-Ryan Blaney $10,700
-Austin Dillon $8,200
-Ryan Preece $3,000
As always, good luck everybody, and please gamble responsibly! If you like what you read, please tell a friend or two. My day job has picked up a bit, so my blogging has slowed down. However, I plan on picking up the pace again, as well as working on the podcast drop soon. Thank you for reading!