NASCAR Week 3 picks: Homestead
Welcome back degenerates! Last week was pretty devastating for my picks. At one point, in the first stage, four of my picks were in the top ten with three of them being in the top five. I got cocky...
We were on our way home from a wrestling tournament for one of the kids. We were listening to MRN and hurrying to hopefully catch the end of the race. It didn't take long for me to wish that we hadn't made it though. Truex Jr. stepped on his shlong on a restart going into turn one on the final restart. One of my dark horses, Chase Briscoe, was running 3rd late in the race, and when I walked into the house and turned the tv on, he was racing with his hood over his windshield. Last but not least, Chase Elliott was making a run to the front with fresh tires, it looked as if he was going to get to Logano, when he drove over Hamlin's nose and spun out.
The good news is, we made it another week, a clean slate if you will. If you are reading this, I appreciate you for forgiving me, lets win some money this week.
Who Am I Betting?
As I said last week, I will throw my two favorites to win the race at you. Next, I like to pick a long shot, usually +1500, or better. That gives me the opportunity to look like an absolute genius just in case we get to see a miracle happen. For example, Christopher Bell was +5000 last week. Shoulda, woulda, coulda..... didn't.
This week is much harder to bet than the Daytona Road course, especially since its the first time we will see them on a mile and a half in 2021. As always, I will take a stab at it though, its not like I don't have better things that I could spend my money on (sarcasm). I actually had to dig and do some research this week. I searched and found the results from the Homestead-Miami Speedway's last three Cup races. The results I found told me to lean toward the Toyotas today as they have won 2 of the last 3, and to stick with the veterans, this isn't a rookie kind of track.
So without stalling any further, the first driver that my money is going on this week is Kyle Busch +1000. First of all, I rarely ever pass up KB if he has 10 to 1 odds, why would you? The man has won at almost every track on the schedule, and he has an average finish of 3.6 (4-1-6) over the last three races at Homestead. Busch had a dismal first quarter in 2020 and I think he has the goal of coming out swinging, and early this season. The #18 gets his first win of 2021 in week 3, at Homestead-Miami.
My second driver for this week may not drive a Toyota, but he is a veteran who has won a lot of races, Joey Logano +1000. The 22 car has been undeniably fast so far in 2021. Joey has been leading at the end of both races just to come up short at the finish line. As someone who has following racing for a long time, I know that if you continue to put yourself in a position to win, you will cross the finish line first eventually.
Logano's last three races at this track have been pretty good too. His average is only 11.3, but that comes from his 27th place result in last year's race that was delayed by rain, as well as slowed multiple times throughout because of Mother Nature. The two results before that were first and fifth, respectively.
Logano is another guy that I don't usually pass up on if Vegas is giving us 10 to 1 odds, but as always, they probably know something we don't.
This week is very hard to pick a value driver with terrible odds to win. Originally Kyle Larson was going to be a no brainer in this spot. He has always run very well at this track, and he is obviously hungry as he almost shocked the racing world last week. With a brand new team, and with Larson being away from asphalt racing for almost a whole year, I thought for sure that I would be betting Larson at +1500 or higher today. That was not the case, the odds for number 5 to win tomorrow are at +900.
Don't get me wrong, that is great for you Larson fans. If you want to cheer for him tomorrow, and you think he can get the job done, I would not blame you one bit for throwing some dough on Yung Money. However, I will not be joining you. It's just too early. Kyle hasn't had the chance to get used to his new team, new lingo with his crew chief, and he hasn't gotten the chance to practice at all. See my blogs later in the season for the commencement of kissing Kyle Laron's ass, I'm a fan, so I'm sure its going to happen.
Now that I got that out of the way, I am going to take Christopher Bell +2500 as my longshot of the week. Last week was awesome, but I am well aware that it is really hard to follow up your first ever win with another win. However, I have a feeling that if anyone could do it, Bell could be the one. He has a very similar skill set as Larson, which can only help you at this track. His dirt track experience and success can only help him with running the top here. Hopefully for me and my loyal followers, running the cushion in a 410 sprint car will translate over to pinning his RR to the wall this week at Homestead.
I am also going to throw Chase Briscoe +6600 in as my "Sprinkle of the Week" for the same reasons. Lots of dirt experience, track with low grip, and a track where the high side is fast.
Bets of the Week
-Kyle Busch +1000
-Joey Logano +1000
-Christopher Bell +2500
Sprinkle of the Week
-Chase Briscoe +6600
Daily Fantasy Lineup (FanDuel)
-K. Harvick $14000
-K. Larson $11300
-C. Bell $8700
-T. Reddick $9200
-C. Custer $6800
God's Speed Bettors, and good luck. As always, bet responsibly.