Welcome to my first NASCAR prediction blog. I plan on doing these once a week on Friday or Saturday mornings. These blogs will be my predictions on how the upcoming Cup race will go, however they will be centered around gambling odds and daily fantasy picks. Eventually, I would like to incorporate the Xfinity and NASCAR Truck series as well, but for now, I am going to focus all of my attention to this week's Cup race at the Daytona Road Course.
With last week being the hardest race of the entire NASCAR season to predict, all of you gamblers out there are probably breathing a sigh of relief. Unless you put money on Michael McDowell, which we all know you didn't, you are looking forward to the Cup series taking a left turn after the tri-oval and kicking off the road course season. Well I have excellent news for you. If last week was the hardest to pick, this week could possibly be the easiest.
Every road course over the last 2 years has been fun to watch. However, every road course over the last two years has been almost identical as far as who's running up front, who's fast, and who is going to finish in the top three of the event. With that being said, NASCAR has announced that there will be rain tires in every pit stall on Sunday, and that there will be no rain delay if weather becomes a factor. Which is great, because Mother Nature is a huge pain in the ass and frankly, as someone from NE Pennsylvania who works outside, I'm sick of her shit!
Who Am I Betting?
I usually put a little bit of money (you have to bet responsibly) on three different drivers to win the race. The top two guys that I think have the absolute best chance to win, and one driver who has longer odds and that I think is a bit of a dark horse. You would be an absolute fool to not bet Chase Elliott at +200 this weekend. The #9 has been dominant on road courses for the last 2 years and its really not even close. He has the aggression to make moves when he needs to, which is very important at this track because of a slim choice of passing zones.
The next pick is the hardest part of this weekend. Both drivers that I am considering picking for slot number 2 are guys that have shown me that they have pea sized testicles when it comes to driving their race cars, and are always on the side of playing it safe. They both tend to wait for things to happen, instead of making things happen. A couple weeks ago in the Clash on the Daytona Road Course, Ryan Blaney showed us all that he is as yellow as his paint scheme. This dude had the race wrapped up, and was tying the bow on top when he got by Chase with new tires at the end of the race. Then what? He took his foot off the gas. Blaney got conservative, and Helen Keller could have seen that he slowed down (to play it safe), and threw the race away to his buddy Chase Elliott. However, if the rains come and they race on a wet track, Blaney's conservative nature may play a huge part in getting to victory lane. Keep an eye on the weather, if it looks like rain, sprinkle a little bit of fairy dust on #12, he might get the job done. Furthermore, I have bet on Blaney to win in the clash, the twin dual races, and the Daytona 500 and failed each time. I can't do it to myself again this weekend.
The driver that I will be betting as my second choice is none other than Martin Truex Jr. +450. Now I have to tell you, "Marty" is my favorite driver, he is the guy I root for week in and week out. To a true fan, Truex Jr. has been frustrating in his own right. He often seems to get pushed around on the race track, and when he does, he never retaliates. Quite frankly, he has become a little whiny too since he inked his new deal. Must be that is just a Joe Gibbs Racing thing.
Truex Jr. has been by far the most consistent on road courses, besides Chase Elliot. He has finished second to him quite a few times over the years, and I also believe that he had the best car before he wrecked coming out the bus stop in the clash. Weather (very punny) it rains or not Martin Truex Jr. is a great value pick on a road course at +450. He could make you some real money this weekend.
So there are the two favorites, now who the hell am I going to choose for my dark horse? On one hand I think that AJ Allmendinger +1500 is a great value, but on the other hand, I don't think he is going to have the car to beat the top guys like the 9 and 19. Chase Briscoe +4000 is really, really, appealing though. He's a rookie, but he's proven to be pretty good on road courses in the NASCAR Xfinity series, and also got quite a bit of experience racing these heavy ass cars in the rain last year. Allmendinger is the veteran though. The guy has a TON of experience on this particular track too. I am going to go with AJ and I might sprinkle a little on Briscoe when the ol' lady isn't looking.
Daily Fantasy Draft Picks
*According to FanDuel's numbers
Chase Elliott- $14,000
Denny Hamlin- $12,000
Martin Truex Jr.- $13,500
Tyler Reddick- $7,000
Ryan Preece- $3,500
Good luck everyone! Please bet responsibly, and don't murder me if I steer you wrong. I have lost more than I have won, and I haven't made a penny off of gambling. Take it as you will.